We studied 100+ life science companies (devices, drugs, diagnostics, biologics) from preclinical through exit. Whether you're evaluating a deal or building one, the patterns that predict failure are specific, quantifiable — and rarely where teams expect them to be.
Evaluating or building a life science company (device, drug, diagnostic, or other) right now?
73%
of devices that stalled or failed showed at least one of these risk patterns before their Series B. In most cases, it was visible in the data room.
Based on Vantage outcome tracking, 2015–2025
These aren't hypothetical. Each one comes from real outcomes — deals that stalled, rounds that fell apart, commercial launches that underperformed. Investors miss them in diligence. Founders miss them in planning.
The most common pattern. Teams optimize for clearance speed without confirming that hospitals can actually get paid. By the time they discover the reimbursement gap, they've burned 12-18 months of runway on a go-to-market plan that doesn't work.
A pitch deck says "$4.2B TAM" because 800,000 patients are diagnosed annually. But the treatable population, physician willingness to adopt, and payer coverage reduce that number by 80-95%. We've seen this gap kill post-market traction in devices with strong clinical data.
Formal competitive landscapes map device vs. device. But physicians often solve the same problem with an off-label application of something they already have. If your competitive analysis only covers direct competitors, you're missing the real barrier to adoption.
+ 7 more patterns in the full guide
All 10 risk patterns with failure correlation data, early indicators, and the questions to ask — whether you're running diligence or preparing for it.
10-page PDF. Takes about 8 minutes to read. Updated quarterly.
"Used the reimbursement framework on a cardiology deal last quarter. Caught a coverage gap that would have killed post-market traction."
— Managing Director, mid-market healthcare PE fund
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Built from real outcomes
100+
Devices analyzed
4
Development stages
18
Risk categories scored
10+
Years of outcome data